In discussions that I have with people from all over the world on a daily basis, I’m frequently asked: How do you see the future transformer business? Is the market going to grow, or not? These questions are not only related to transformers, but also to materials, components, service, etc. People ask this knowing that I work with various teams and that I probably have a good understanding of the market. What I always point out in response is that there is a difference between having an insight into the current state of affairs and forecasting, particularly today living in the world where one political decision can easily impact, let’s say, one third of the global transformer market. And even with a good grasp of the market, forecasting is quite sensitive and it always implies uncertainty. Nowadays, there are many market reports available, but people are either reluctant to read them or they are simply unsure which report they can rely on.
Fundamentally, most of the reports forecast market growth in the next period, and while my aim is not to analyse these reports here, I would like to share the impressions that one gets combining the publicly available information.
There are two drivers supporting the market growth in the near future. A large part of the infrastructure equipment in developed countries has reached end of the designed life time, and a big part of it is approaching the end of the life time.